Legislature(2013 - 2014)SENATE FINANCE 532

01/28/2014 05:30 PM Senate LEGISLATIVE BUDGET & AUDIT


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05:37:53 PM Start
05:39:03 PM Presentation: Natural Gas Market Outlook & Fundamentals of the Lng Business
07:08:25 PM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ Presentation by Nikos Tsafos & Janak Mayer, LB&A TELECONFERENCED
Consultants
Natural Gas Market Outlook & Fundamentals of the
LNG Business
**Streamed live on AKL.TV**
                    ALASKA STATE LEGISLATURE                                                                                  
             LEGISLATIVE BUDGET AND AUDIT COMMITTEE                                                                           
                        January 28, 2014                                                                                        
                           5:37 p.m.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Anna Fairclough, Chair                                                                                                  
Senator Kevin Meyer                                                                                                             
Senator Donald Olson                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Representative Alan Austerman                                                                                                   
Representative Bob Herron                                                                                                       
Representative Andy Josephson                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Representative Mike Hawker, Vice Chair                                                                                          
Representative Scott Kawasaki (alternate)                                                                                       
Representative Bill Stoltze (alternate)                                                                                         
Representative Kurt Olson                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator Click Bishop                                                                                                            
Senator Cathy Giessel                                                                                                           
Senator Mike Dunleavy (alternate)                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
OTHER LEGISLATORS PRESENT                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Senator Coghill                                                                                                                 
Senator Huggins                                                                                                                 
Senator Dunleavy                                                                                                                
Senator Wielechowski                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Representative Feige                                                                                                            
Representative Hughes                                                                                                           
Representative Gara                                                                                                             
Representative Gruenberg                                                                                                        
Representative Thompson                                                                                                         
Representative Saddler                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
COMMITTEE CALENDAR                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
PRESENTATION: NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK & FUNDAMENTALS OF THE                                                                  
LNG BUSINESS                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
     - HEARD                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
No previous action to record                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
WITNESS REGISTER                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
JANAK MAYER, Partner                                                                                                            
Enalytica                                                                                                                       
POSITION STATEMENT:   Presented a PowerPoint  titled "Natural Gas                                                             
Market Outlook & Fundamentals of LNG Business."                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
NIKOS TSAFOS, Partner                                                                                                           
Enalytica                                                                                                                       
POSITION STATEMENT:   Presented a PowerPoint  titled "Natural Gas                                                             
Market Outlook & Fundamentals of LNG Business."                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
ACTION NARRATIVE                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
5:37:53 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  ANNA FAIRCLOUGH  called the  Legislative Budget  and Audit                                                             
Committee meeting to order at  5:37 p.m.  Senators Fairclough and                                                               
Meyer, and Representatives Austerman,  Herron, and Josephson were                                                               
present  at the  call to  order.   Senator Olson  arrived as  the                                                               
meeting  was  in progress.    Also  in attendance  were  Senators                                                               
Coghill,    Huggins,    Dunleavy,     and    Wielechowski,    and                                                               
Representatives  Feige, Hughes,  Gara,  Gruenberg, Thompson,  and                                                               
Saddler.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
^Presentation: Natural  Gas Market Outlook &  Fundamentals of the                                                               
LNG Business                                                                                                                    
 Presentation: Natural Gas Market Outlook & Fundamentals of the                                                             
                          LNG Business                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
5:39:03 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR FAIRCLOUGH announced that the  only order of business would                                                               
be  a presentation  on the  outlook and  fundamentals of  the LNG                                                               
business  and the  natural gas  market.   She clarified  that the                                                               
Legislative  Budget   and  Audit  Committee  had   cancelled  the                                                               
contract with PFC Energy after  its acquisition by IHS during the                                                               
previous  year.   She  declared  that  the development  of  trust                                                               
through  years of  consistency and  professionalism  had led  the                                                               
Legislative Budget  and Audit Committee  to authorize  a contract                                                               
with Janak  Mayer and Nikos Tsafos  for the 2014 State  of Alaska                                                               
legislative session.   She reported  that they were  available to                                                               
discuss the  modeling and analysis of  natural gas and LNG.   She                                                               
explained that the process for  requesting information from these                                                               
consultants  would be  the same  as in  the previous  legislative                                                               
session.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
5:40:52 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
JANAK  MAYER, Partner,  declared that  he  was a  partner in  the                                                               
newly formed energy  advisory firm, Enalytica.   He reported that                                                               
this  was   his  third  year   working  with  the   Alaska  State                                                               
Legislature  on  gas and  oil  issues.    He  noted that  he  had                                                               
previously consulted as  an employee of PFC Energy  "on issues of                                                               
oil fiscal  terms and  fiscal terms reform."   He  explained that                                                               
the  core of  his work  was based  on modeling  for fiscal  terms                                                               
analysis  and understanding  with  governments and  international                                                               
companies  for  different oil  and  gas  portfolios in  different                                                               
regimes and environments.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
5:42:08 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
NIKOS  TSAFOS,  Partner,  shared  that he  had  spent  7.5  years                                                               
working  with PFC  Energy  in  global gas  practice,  and he  had                                                               
worked  globally  with  companies  consulting  "on  every  single                                                               
aspect  of  the  oil  and   gas  industry."    He  expressed  his                                                               
excitement  to  advise  the  State  of Alaska  on  its  "path  to                                                               
commercializing gas from the North Slope."                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  FAIRCLOUGH  specified  that  all  of  the  documents  were                                                               
currently  available on  BASIS,  as well  as  on the  Legislative                                                               
Budget and Audit Committee website.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
5:43:40 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS declared that he  would talk about natural gas markets                                                               
and  fundamentals of  the Liquefied  Natural Gas  (LNG) business.                                                               
He noted  that he would finish  with a focus on  the implications                                                               
for Alaska.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
5:44:20 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS  directed attention  to slide 2,  "Gas and  LNG Market                                                               
Fundamentals are  Strong."  He noted  that gas was "a  great part                                                               
of the energy mix," and that  the world was becoming more aligned                                                               
with  natural gas.   He  shared that  the expectation  for energy                                                               
demand would grow at 1.2 percent,  while the demand for gas would                                                               
increase by 1.6 percent.  He  stated that 24 percent of the total                                                               
energy would come  from natural gas, up 3 percent  from 2011.  He                                                               
projected  that the  growth of  demand for  natural gas  from now                                                               
until 2035 would be  31 percent.  He opined that  this was a good                                                               
time for  the state to develop  its natural gas, sharing  that 70                                                               
percent  would  be consumed  near  the  production point  and  30                                                               
percent  would be  transported.   He pointed  to this  market for                                                               
transported gas,  projecting that  67 percent would  be delivered                                                               
through the  pipeline and 33 percent  would be LNG.   He reported                                                               
that LNG demand  was the fastest growing part of  the gas market,                                                               
growing four  times faster  than overall gas  demand in  the last                                                               
decade.   He projected that  the future  demand for LNG  would be                                                               
twice as  fast as  the overall  consumption of  natural gas.   He                                                               
suggested that the  projected gas market should  include Asia, as                                                               
its  proximity  would be  a  great  advantage  for the  state  in                                                               
supplying  the region.    He offered  his belief  that  a lot  of                                                               
suppliers were trying  to capture that market.  He  stated that a                                                               
key question for both buyers and  investors was "Why Alaska?"  He                                                               
reported that gas  was very different from oil in  many ways, and                                                               
the most profound difference was  for pricing.  He declared that,                                                               
while the world  oil market traded primarily  around a determined                                                               
price, there  was not a  similar pricing  for gas.   He explained                                                               
that there were huge disparities for gas pricing.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
5:48:58 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS  moved on to slide  3, "LNG Projects Are  Big, Complex                                                               
And  Multi-Layered,"   and  highlighted   that  the   history  of                                                               
commercial  LNG projects  in Alaska  reflected both  similarities                                                               
and  differences  from  pipeline   projects.    He  stated  that,                                                               
although  both were  natural gas,  the  business structures  were                                                               
different.   He  pointed  out that,  although  LNG projects  take                                                               
years,  even   decades,  from   first  discovery   to  commercial                                                               
production, the  investors only make  an initial  huge investment                                                               
and then  enjoy its benefits.   The  key question was  whether it                                                               
was worth making  the initial investment.  He  opined that, after                                                               
the initial  investment, there  would be long  term revenue.   He                                                               
stated that  there was  not a  standard way  to structure  an LNG                                                               
project.    As each  project  was  big, complex,  and  different,                                                               
everything  comes from  negotiation,  which  allowed an  enormous                                                               
potential for  a win-win situation  to all investors.   He shared                                                               
that  research on  state project  involvement  reflected that  an                                                               
entire  range of  outcomes was  possible.   He noted  that states                                                               
could be  regulators and tax  levying authorities with  no equity                                                               
or  participation, or  they could  have complete  ownership.   He                                                               
emphasized that  there was not  a given path to  participation or                                                               
investment.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
5:53:14 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS  described a long  precedent of LNG projects  to local                                                               
markets.   He pointed to the  gas which had been  sitting without                                                               
an  outlet  for development,  stranded  gas,  but was  now  being                                                               
developed  for  local  markets,  as  well  as  for  export.    He                                                               
described  a key  for these  projects to  be risk  management and                                                               
mitigation,  including  finance,   marketing,  and  price  review                                                               
clauses.  He declared that  the flexibility of negotiations using                                                               
risk  mitigation methods  could allow  for a  comfortable risk  -                                                               
reward structure.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
5:54:47 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS  pointed  to  slide  4,  "Alaska  Has  Many  Ways  To                                                               
Participate In LNG  Project."  He explained that  the broad point                                                               
to  highlight was  that there  were a  lot of  decisions for  the                                                               
amount  of  state  participation,  and   that  there  was  not  a                                                               
precedent for involvement.  He  clarified that this only required                                                               
willing counterparts.   He pointed  out that  he knew of  two LNG                                                               
projects  with only  one owner,  as most  projects involved  many                                                               
equity partners, governments, and banks.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
5:56:20 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MAYER explained  that  he  would offer  an  overview of  the                                                               
fundamentals of  the natural gas  market and its  future outlook,                                                               
slide 6,  "Energy Demand Has More  Than Tripled Since 1960."   He                                                               
stated that gas  was an increasing part of the  energy story, and                                                               
that  this was  a  good time  for a  state  with substantial  gas                                                               
resources to study  ways for bringing it to market.   He declared                                                               
that energy  demand had  more than tripled  since 1960,  with oil                                                               
being used primarily for transportation,  while coal and gas were                                                               
used  more for  power.   He added  that nuclear  and hydro  power                                                               
contributed about  7.5 percent  of the overall  power.   He noted                                                               
that 10 percent of worldwide  power was provided by biomass, most                                                               
often  wood and  waste for  heat and  cooking fuel  in developing                                                               
countries.   He pointed  out that, with  development, the  use of                                                               
biomass fuel would gravitate toward coal and gas.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
5:58:52 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MAYER discussed  the projected  increase  in population  and                                                               
energy use for  the next 20 years, slide  7, "Strong Fundamentals                                                               
Support  Higher Energy  Use."    He noted  that  the majority  of                                                               
population increase would  be in cities, and  would desire energy                                                               
producing materials.  He suggested  that this would bring greater                                                               
energy efficiency.   Moving on to slide 8,  "IEA Forecasts Energy                                                               
To Grow  At 1.2% by 2035,"  he stated that gas  would account for                                                               
31  percent of  the growth,  an annual  1.6 percent  growth rate.                                                               
This would  increase the gas share  of total energy use  from its                                                               
current  21.3 percent  to 23.7  percent.   He allowed  that there                                                               
would be  a lot of  need for a gas  resource, which was  good for                                                               
the state.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
6:01:54 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. MAYER displayed  slide 9, "Gas Units  And Conversions," which                                                               
translated the  terms for  future conversations,  emphasizing the                                                               
conversion of barrels  [of oil] to cubic feet  and the subsequent                                                               
conversion of  cubic feet to  heating units.  He  explained slide                                                               
10, "Only 30%  Of Global Gas Is Traded [Vs.  64% Of Oil]," noting                                                               
that  only  30  percent  of gas  ever  crossed  an  international                                                               
border, as the  remainder was consumed in the  country from which                                                               
it was  produced.   He reminded the  committee of  the difficulty                                                               
for  transporting gas,  all of  which required  large amounts  of                                                               
capital, in  either a pipeline or  LNG flasks.  He  reported that                                                               
Europe  and  Asia  were  the  biggest  import  markets  for  gas,                                                               
accounting  for 71  percent of  gas imports.   The  former Soviet                                                               
Union had the greatest surplus of  gas, exporting 26 percent.  He                                                               
recounted  that the  United States,  Mexico, and  Canada produced                                                               
and consumed  about 27 percent  of the  world's natural gas.   He                                                               
stated that, of the 30  percent of natural gas transported across                                                               
borders, almost 70  percent was via pipeline,  with the remaining                                                               
30 percent being LNG.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
6:04:55 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MAYER introduced  slide 11,  "More  Than Half  [58%] Of  Gas                                                               
Trade Within Regions,"  and detailed that most of  the 30 percent                                                               
of gas  transported across  borders stayed within  a region.   He                                                               
offered examples of trade from  the former Soviet Union to Europe                                                               
and to  Asia, and gas  from the Middle  East and North  Africa to                                                               
Europe.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
6:06:19 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MAYER addressed  slide 12,  "IEA Puts  Gas Demand  Growth At                                                               
1.6% Through 2035," stating that  the overall energy demand would                                                               
grow at  1.2 percent, but that  the demand for gas  would grow at                                                               
1.6  percent.   He pointed  out that  there would  be 18  percent                                                               
growth  in the  developed  countries, but  82  percent growth  in                                                               
developing countries, with 44 percent  of this demand in Asia and                                                               
almost 20 percent in the Middle East.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
6:07:11 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. MAYER  moved on to  slide 13, "LNG  Market Was 31.7  BCF/D In                                                               
2012,"  and explained  that Alaska  had a  potential to  supply 2                                                               
billion cubic feet per day of  LNG to the world LNG market demand                                                               
of almost  32 billion cubic  feet each day.   He stated  that the                                                               
Middle East  had the largest surplus  of LNG, while Asia  had the                                                               
biggest deficit,  requiring 70 percent, with  Europe requiring 21                                                               
percent.   He added that  South America  and the Middle  East had                                                               
also recently begun importing LNG,  about 6 percent of the total.                                                               
He pointed out that Africa,  namely Nigeria and Algeria, exported                                                               
about 16.5 percent of the surplus LNG.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
6:08:41 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MAYER furnished  slide  14,  "Qatar Is  By  Far Largest  LNG                                                               
Exporter [32.6% Total]."   He established that Qatar  was "by far                                                               
the world's  biggest LNG exporter  at the moment" with  almost 80                                                               
million  tons in  2012.   He predicted  that Australia,  with its                                                               
current production  schedule, would  surpass Qatar  in production                                                               
by 2025 to become the largest  LNG producer worldwide.  He listed                                                               
Qatar, Malaysia,  Australia, Nigeria, Indonesia, and  Trinidad as                                                               
the primary suppliers of LNG, almost 75 percent.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
6:10:00 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. MAYER  offered slide 15,  "LNG Demand Concentrated  Among Few                                                               
Buyers,"  which listed  Japan and  Korea as  the two  markets for                                                               
almost 50  percent of the  demand for LNG.   He pointed  out that                                                               
inclusion of  China, Spain,  India, and  Taiwan accounted  for 75                                                               
percent of demand, and that, except  for Spain, all were in Asia.                                                               
He  indicated  that  15  other countries  imported  less  than  2                                                               
percent each of  global demand, but more and  more countries were                                                               
importing LNG.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
6:11:24 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. MAYER  summarized slide 16, "LNG  Demand To Grow 3.8%  A Year                                                               
To  2030,"  observing that  Asia  was  the dominant  market  with                                                               
almost 75 percent of the growth for LNG demand.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
6:12:47 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MAYER described  slide 17,  "Many  Possible Suppliers,  Many                                                               
Risks  To Manage"  and detailed  that, although  there were  many                                                               
potential  supply countries,  all  of them  had many  challenges,                                                               
including permitting, high costs, and local demand priorities.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
6:14:29 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MAYER  reviewed slide  18,  "Gas  Pricing Structures  Highly                                                               
Variable,"  declaring  it  was   important  to  understand  that,                                                               
although  oil had  a  mostly single  worldwide  price, gas  price                                                               
varied enormously  around the world, "between  countries and even                                                               
within  countries."   He  listed several  key  approaches in  the                                                               
pricing of  gas:  price  is set solely  on the balance  of supply                                                               
and  demand, per  the Henry  Hub  gas price  in the  US, and  the                                                               
national  balancing  point   in  UK;  price  is   set  against  a                                                               
substitute  fuel,  as  in  Japan,  or for  its  end  use,  as  in                                                               
Trinidad; price is  set solely against an  arbitrary fixed price,                                                               
such as Equatorial Guinea.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
6:18:23 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. MAYER  confirmed slide  19, "No  Such Thing  As A  Global Gas                                                               
Price," reporting that  the price in 2012 ranged  from an average                                                               
of  $2.76 Henry  Hub  price  in the  U.S.,  more  than $11.03  in                                                               
Germany, and $16.75 in Japan.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
6:19:09 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. MAYER  presented slide 20, "No  Such Thing As An  "Asian" Gas                                                               
Price,"  explaining that  there was  a substantial  difference to                                                               
price ranging  from $17.81 in Japan  to $11.52 in China  in 2012.                                                               
He noted  that the range  in price  was often determined  by when                                                               
the contracts were signed.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
6:20:49 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. MAYER directed attention to  slide 21, "Pricing Can Vary Even                                                               
Within Countries,"  noting the  enormous disparity  of individual                                                               
contracts for import costs of LNG  to Korea, $6.40 from Russia to                                                               
$19.25 from Norway.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
6:21:54 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MAYER   assessed  slide  22,  "Gas   Pricing  Is  Undergoing                                                               
Fundamental  Changes,"  and  explained that  there  were  surplus                                                               
cycles within  the global  gas market,  which could  create great                                                               
times  for buyers  as  suppliers were  in  competition with  each                                                               
other.   He analyzed that  these surplus cycles  allowed movement                                                               
toward "mechanisms that  are about the marginal  cost of supply,"                                                               
which he  defined as the capital  the supplier had to  invest for                                                               
production, with a reasonable rate  of return.  He considered the                                                               
times  of shortage  to be  a seller's  market, which  allowed the                                                               
price  of gas  to  be only  slightly  lower than  the  cost of  a                                                               
substitute  fuel.    He  declared  that  timing  was  "absolutely                                                               
everything."  He  projected that the outlook for  post 2020 would                                                               
be driven  by the "outlook  for all  the other projects  that are                                                               
coming on-line, how quickly we  see those moving forward, how the                                                               
strategy of importers  changed during that time."   He pointed to                                                               
the  excitement  of the  large  Asian  utilities for  gas  prices                                                               
linked to the Henry Hub, rather  than to oil prices.  He observed                                                               
that  the response  of the  large existing  suppliers would  also                                                               
fundamentally  affect  the  price  outlook.   He  concluded  that                                                               
fundamentals  for gas,  specifically  the LNG  market, were  very                                                               
strong,  and that  this was  a  great time  to have  a large  gas                                                               
resource and to be looking for a market.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
6:24:07 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. MAYER  reviewed slide  23, "Gas  And LNG  Market Fundamentals                                                               
Are Strong".   He pointed out that, although the  demand for gas,                                                               
1.6 percent, was  growing faster than the demand  for energy, 1.2                                                               
percent, the  demand for LNG  had been growing four  times faster                                                               
than the  overall demand  for gas  during the  last decade.   The                                                               
demand growth  in Asia makes it  the focus of the  Alaska market;                                                               
however, there  were many  supply options,  which could  create a                                                               
downward pressure on pricing.   He reiterated that suppliers must                                                               
compete  in the  pricing, as  gas  pricing was  "still about  the                                                               
micro, rather than  the macro.  There's no  global price, there's                                                               
no regional  price, there isn't even  a country price.   Micro is                                                               
everything."                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  FAIRCLOUGH affirmed  that it  was necessary  to understand                                                               
the  big picture,  and  that  this report  was  a  summary of  an                                                               
earlier  five day  presentation.   She relayed  that the  earlier                                                               
presentations were available to  review on the Legislative Budget                                                               
and Audit Committee website.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
6:26:29 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS, presenting  the fundamentals  of  the LNG  business,                                                               
emphasized that the details really  mattered.  He indicated slide                                                               
25,  "Big Upfront  Investment, Long-Term  Revenue,"  which was  a                                                               
graphic representation  of the initial  investment for  long term                                                               
benefits.   He highlighted that generally  the long-term economic                                                               
risk  was for  a subpar,  or less  than optimal,  rate of  return                                                               
rather than the outright loss of money.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
6:28:43 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS commented  on slide  26, "LNG  Projects Move  On Many                                                               
Parallel  Fronts."   He  established  that  many of  the  project                                                               
pieces  moved  together,  and  required  a  lot  of  time  before                                                               
construction.    He spoke  about  the  front-end engineering  and                                                               
design  studies  (FEED and  pre-FEED)  which  preceded the  final                                                               
investment  decisions  (FID).    He  emphasized  that,  prior  to                                                               
construction  and  FID, most  of  the  worries should  have  been                                                               
studied and answered, before any great investment.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
6:31:11 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS stated  that,  as  the overall  objective  of an  LNG                                                               
project  was for  sales, it  was key  to secure  a counter  party                                                               
which committed to buy the gas,  slide 27, "Basics: LNG sales and                                                               
purchase agreements  (SPAs)."   He explained  that the  sales and                                                               
purchase  agreements (SPAs)  were long  term contracts  with many                                                               
components,   including   destination,  duration,   start   date,                                                               
quantity, flexibility, and pricing  structure.  He specified that                                                               
the conflicts  between states and  companies were often  based on                                                               
an understanding  of the destination  clauses, where the  gas was                                                               
allowed to go and under what  conditions.  He explained that this                                                               
was  crucial as  it reflected  a share  of value  under different                                                               
conditions.  He explained that  most contracts were "take or pay"                                                               
which meant that payment was for  how much gas was taken, and not                                                               
based  on its  use;  otherwise, any  commitment  to sales  volume                                                               
which could be  reduced or cancelled made  the contract worthless                                                               
from a stability  and predictability perspective.   He listed gas                                                               
quality, whether  it contained liquids, CO2  or other impurities,                                                               
profit   sharing   related    to   destination,   non-compliance,                                                               
renegotiation clauses in contracts  for either periodic review or                                                               
changes  in fundamentals,  and when  the title  of gas  ownership                                                               
transfers from  seller to  buyer as  important components  of the                                                               
SPAs.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
6:35:18 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS indicated  slide  28, "LNG  Exports  Often Linked  To                                                               
Domestic  Gas Sales"  and  relayed  that a  large  number of  LNG                                                               
projects  had  a  domestic component,  including  Yemen,  Angola,                                                               
Malaysia,  Australia, and  Indonesia,  requiring  that a  certain                                                               
percentage of gas be sold to the local market.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS moved on to  slide 29, "Integrated Projects Distribute                                                               
Value   Internally,"  focusing   on   the   importance  for   the                                                               
distribution of  value in  the pricing.   He described  the three                                                               
structures  for a  project.   First,  he  detailed an  integrated                                                               
project which  included ownership of the  upstream production and                                                               
the  liquefaction facility,  with  sales to  another  buyer.   He                                                               
pointed  out that,  as the  facilities all  belonged to  the same                                                               
company, the only important price was that to the buyer.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
6:37:33 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS directed attention to  slide 30, "Infrastructure Owner                                                               
Drives  Pricing."   In  this  second  scenario, the  liquefaction                                                               
facility  bought the  gas  from the  upstream  producer and  then                                                               
later  sold it  to a  buyer.   The profit  was determined  by the                                                               
price to buy and the price  to sell.  He presented three examples                                                               
which each  reflected that the  amount of the profit  depended on                                                               
the  economics of  your place  in the  line of  transaction.   He                                                               
emphasized  that the  same commercial  structure could  have very                                                               
different outcomes for the distribution of value.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
6:40:32 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS discussed  slide 31, "LNG Akin To Pipeline:  Pay A Fee                                                               
To Use Facility,"  which described a tolling  structure, in which                                                               
the pipeline owner and the  liquefaction owner were simply paid a                                                               
fee with no ownership of  the gas, therefore the relevant pricing                                                               
was between the supplier and the buyer.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
6:41:10 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS focused  on slide  32, "There  Is No  "Right" Project                                                               
Structure" as  the project was driven  by the resource base.   He                                                               
explained that  an integrated  project was  simple, as  there was                                                               
one transaction point,  but it was not very  flexible as everyone                                                               
was in  the same ownership.   He  stated that a  merchant project                                                               
could  accommodate new  gas  supplies, but,  as  it required  two                                                               
transactions,   this   could   cause   tension   if   there   was                                                               
inconsistency  between  the supply  and  the  demand price.    He                                                               
pointed out  that a tolling  project was adaptable  and scalable,                                                               
but  it was  necessary to  agree on  the tolling  fee as  well as                                                               
access  to  the  infrastructure.    He  declared  his  desire  to                                                               
familiarize the  committee with  the range  of material  to allow                                                               
for deeper discussions at a later time.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
6:42:05 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS  examined  slide  33,  "State  Participation  In  LNG                                                               
Projects  Varies  Greatly,"  and  stated:     "You  name  it,  it                                                               
happens."   He clarified that  government equity ranged  from not                                                               
interfering other than  to tax or regulate the  companies to full                                                               
government ownership.  He highlighted  that government equity was                                                               
most often managed through national oil companies.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
6:43:26 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS referred  to  the  aforementioned development  risks,                                                               
slide 34, "LNG Takes Time,  Often Decades, From First Discovery,"                                                               
noting that Alaska  was not peculiar as other  projects had taken                                                               
20-30 years  to be developed.   He focused on the  fact that very                                                               
few LNG projects  had ended with the same  project structure from                                                               
which they started, slide 35,  "Partner Alignment Crucial For LNG                                                               
Development."   He shared that,  most often, partners  pulled out                                                               
and others  came on, which he  declared to be "a  crucial element                                                               
of  getting  everyone   on  board"  in  order   for  the  correct                                                               
partnership to develop.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
6:44:49 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS assessed the most serious  risk, prior to start of the                                                               
project,  to be  delays and  cost overrides,  which he  listed on                                                               
slide 36,  "Development Risks."   He suggested that  the tendency                                                               
was for "late  and over budget."  This accounted  for the current                                                               
variation in the cost analysis for Alaska.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
6:45:33 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS  relayed his desire  to clarify the risks  involved in                                                               
this  equity venture,  as it  would better  explain the  economic                                                               
modeling, slide  37, "Technical Challenges  Can Lead  To Frequent                                                               
Outages."   He  reported that  outages  were a  risk, as  project                                                               
utilization  ranged  from 60  -  90  percent.   He  reminded  the                                                               
committee  that  these  outages could  lead  to  subpar  returns;                                                               
though  not  losing money,  not  earning  as much  as  projected.                                                               
Introducing  slide 38,  "Supplying Local  Markets Can  Divert Gas                                                               
From LNG,"  he stated  that a local  market could  take political                                                               
priority over exports,  and should be considered  in the economic                                                               
assessment.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
6:46:57 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS said that natural decline,  as on the Kenai, had to be                                                               
managed  to meet  contractual obligations,  in order  to mitigate                                                               
any penalties,  slide 39, "Feedstock  Maturity Can Lead  To Rapid                                                               
Decline."   Moving on to  slide 40,  "Demand Shock Led  To Output                                                               
Losses- But  Long Ago,"  he reflected that  during the  1980s and                                                               
early  1990s,  if  the demand  diminished,  then  production  was                                                               
curtailed; however, in the LNG  market today the risk was greater                                                               
for  a lower  price, rather  than  for output  demand, slide  41,                                                               
"Price risk more important than volume risk."                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
6:48:55 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS suggested  that mitigation  for this  volume risk  in                                                               
half  the  LNG projects  included  sales  to a  project  partner.                                                               
Although  underperformance  did not  lead  to  any penalties,  it                                                               
often led to third party  financing, slide 42, "Buyers Often Take                                                               
Equity| Partners Off Take LNG."                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
6:49:58 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS  explained that collateral  for LNG  project financing                                                               
was  based  on the  future  revenue  stream, slide  43,  "Project                                                               
Finance Well  Established In  LNG".  He  noted that  this allowed                                                               
access to  third party financing  from commercial  banks, private                                                               
sectors, and credit agencies.   He suggested that a large portion                                                               
of  financing for  an Alaska  LNG project  could come  from third                                                               
party financing, as reflected on the list on slide 43.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
6:51:31 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS explained  that there could be  any pricing structure,                                                               
especially  if  the downside  risk  was  reduced by  providing  a                                                               
ceiling on  prices, slide 44,  "Pricing Formula Can  Reduce Price                                                               
Volatility."   He declared that should  there be a dispute  or if                                                               
there   were   imbalances,   LNG  contracts   could   always   be                                                               
renegotiated,   slide   45,   "Worst  Case,   There   Is   Always                                                               
Renegotiation."                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
6:54:11 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS  discussed slide  46, "LNG  Projects Are  Big, Complex                                                               
And  Multi-Layered," and  stated  that there  was investment  for                                                               
long term revenue,  and the structure needed to  address risk and                                                               
risk mitigation.   He pointed out that it was  often necessary to                                                               
forego  some  upside  in  order  to defend  some  downside.    He                                                               
declared  that  the  implications  for Alaska,  slide  48,  "Path                                                               
Forward  Requires   Answers  To  Key  Questions,"   included  the                                                               
questions for how should Alaska  take its share, should the state                                                               
take equity  in the project, what  to do with gas  taken in kind,                                                               
what risk and risk mitigators was  the state willing to make, and                                                               
how  to  begin   the  project  without  locking   in  a  specific                                                               
structure.  He explained that  it was necessary to correctly plan                                                               
for and define both the present  and the future LNG projects.  He                                                               
pointed out  the need to question  how the LNG project  would fit                                                               
into the state revenue needs.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
6:56:43 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  TSAFOS concluded  with slide  49, "Alaska  Has Many  Ways To                                                               
Participate In  LNG Project."   He summarized  that there  was "a                                                               
huge range  of possibilities  in terms of  where you  invest, how                                                               
much you invest, how actively you  participate ... "  He declared                                                               
that  the   design  possibilities  were  endless,   as  the  only                                                               
necessity  was  for  comfort  between the  state  and  the  other                                                               
parties involved.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
6:57:42 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE HERRON,  referencing slide 3 and  noting that each                                                               
project was  custom designed,  asked if  there were  any examples                                                               
for world class model projects.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
6:58:38 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS, in response, stated  "yes, for the circumstances they                                                               
faced," offering  his belief that  this was  the key caveat.   He                                                               
presented Qatar  as a model  which had  one massive field  with a                                                               
major  national company.   He  opined that  merchant and  tolling                                                               
projects were  the most adaptable,  as it was necessary  to serve                                                               
both today  and tomorrow's  projects, citing  Trinidad as  a good                                                               
example.   He emphasized that  thinking through  the permutations                                                               
in the beginning would save a lot of time along the way.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  GARA   expressed  that,  although   he  basically                                                               
supported the concept of state  ownership of the pipeline, he was                                                               
cautious.   He questioned if  it was common that  minority owners                                                               
had  to make  payment  for transportation  through the  pipeline,                                                               
even if  no gas was shipped,  and, if so, how  extensive was this                                                               
risk.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
7:02:31 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. TSAFOS  replied that it  was necessary to  separate ownership                                                               
from  [pipeline] capacity,  and that  these did  not "have  to be                                                               
identical."   He explained that  it was possible  for arrangement                                                               
of  a commercial  structure  to have  ownership  in the  pipeline                                                               
without any  commitment to ship gas.   He stated that  he was not                                                               
aware of an  example for ownership with a commitment  to ship gas                                                               
while there was no control over  the gas going into the pipeline.                                                               
He suggested  that with  payment of gas  in-kind, there  would be                                                               
control.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
7:04:00 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MAYER  opined  that  there  was still  quite  a  bit  to  be                                                               
determined,  as it  was  quite  possible for  the  state to  have                                                               
equity in  the pipeline and/or  the liquefaction facility,  or to                                                               
take its gas  in kind, and ship it through  both the pipeline and                                                               
the  liquefaction facility.   He  declared that  the state  could                                                               
have  active  engagement,  and   not  outsource  the  sales,  but                                                               
instead, develop its  own marketing operation.   He offered other                                                               
possibilities which included agreements  with one company or many                                                               
companies for marketing.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
7:05:40 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  AUSTERMAN commented  that he  was impressed  with                                                               
the presentation, but that he needed  more time to absorb all the                                                               
information.   He  offered his  belief  that there  was value  in                                                               
applying  and   comparing  the  presented  issues   to  "what  is                                                               
currently on the table."                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  FAIRCLOUGH clarified  that the  presenters were  available                                                               
for  recall to  the committee.   She  pointed out  that both  the                                                               
Senate  and House  Resources Standing  Committees  would also  be                                                               
accessing  this   information.     She  acknowledged   that  this                                                               
presentation had  been "a fire  hose approach" to  the variables,                                                               
as these variables were very different  than the oil market.  She                                                               
declared that  there would  be a lot  of opportunity  for further                                                               
discussions with these consultants during the session.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
7:08:25 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
There  being  no  further  business  before  the  committee,  the                                                               
Legislative Budget  and Audit Committee meeting  was adjourned at                                                               
7:08 p.m.                                                                                                                       

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
Gas Market Outlook & LNG Business Fundamentals.pdf JBUD 1/28/2014 5:30:00 PM